What They Did
Intuit is the financial software giant behind TurboTax, QuickBooks, and Credit Karma. TurboTax dominated the consumer tax preparation market, charging users to navigate tax filing through guided software — something that essentially translates tax code into a series of questions and forms.
How LLMs Killed Them
General-purpose LLMs like ChatGPT can now handle end-to-end tax filing guidance, explain tax code, and help users optimize deductions — the exact value proposition TurboTax charges for. Wall Street saw the writing on the wall before customers did: investors began pricing in the existential risk that free AI tools would undercut Intuit's pricing power. Wells Fargo downgraded the stock; Goldman Sachs initiated with "Neutral" citing AI uncertainty.
Timeline
- Early 2025: Stock began sustained decline as analysts raised AI disruption concerns.
- Mid-2025: Wells Fargo downgraded Intuit, citing AI as a long-term threat to tax preparation software.
- January 2026: Stock down 24% year-to-date in the first month alone, caught in the broader SaaS selloff.
- February 2026: Total decline reached ~50% from highs as the "SaaSpocalypse" accelerated losses.
By the Numbers
- Stock down ~50% from highs on AI disruption fears
- 24% decline in January 2026 alone
- Forward P/E compressed from 21x to under 19x
- Business fundamentals still intact — the market is pricing in a future that hasn't arrived yet